Meld Financial, Inc. Presents:
Weekly Economic Update
“Truth burns up error.”
– Sojourner Truth
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Last Week’s Riddle
When you say its name, it is no longer there. What is it?
Last week’s answer:
April 16, 2018
CONSUMER SENTIMENT INDEX DESCENDS SLIGHTLY
In its initial April edition, the University of Michigan’s survey of household sentiment saw its index decline to 97.8 from its final March reading of 101.4. The survey’s chief economist, Richard Curtin, believed that “uncertainty surrounding the evolving [U.S.] trade policy” affected the reading, but he added that “confidence still remains relatively high.”1
A SURPRISE RETREAT FOR THE HEADLINE CPI
Economists polled by Briefing.com assumed the Consumer Price Index would rise 0.1% in March. Instead, it fell by that amount, largely due to a dip in gasoline costs. Core consumer inflation increased 0.2% and matched their expectations. Looking at the big picture, the Department of Labor said that consumer prices were up 2.4% year-over-year through March.2,3
OIL SOARS AS POSSIBILITY OF SYRIA STRIKE LOOMS
Light sweet crude rose 8.6% in five days on the NYMEX, breaking a 2-week losing streak and settling at $67.39 Friday. That was oil’s best close since December 2014.4
STOCKS CLIMB AS EARNINGS SEASON BEGINS
Less anxiety about tariffs and renewed optimism about tech and financial shares led the market higher last week. The S&P 500 gained 1.99% in five days to settle at 2,656.30 Friday. The Dow Industrials rose 1.79% to a Friday close of 24,360.14, and the Nasdaq Composite added 2.77%, wrapping up Friday’s trading day at 7,106.65. Wall Street’s “fear index,” the CBOE VIX, declined 18.99% for the week.5
THIS WEEK: On Monday, Bank of America, Celanese, and Netflix present Q1 results, and March retail sales numbers also arrive. Tuesday, earnings from Comerica, CSX, Goldman Sachs, IBM, Johnson & Johnson, Northern Trust, and UnitedHealth appear, plus data on March construction activity. Wednesday’s earnings roll call includes Abbott Labs, Alcoa, American Express, Fred’s, Morgan Stanley, U.S. Bancorp, and United Rentals; investors will also consider a new Federal Reserve Beige Book. BoNY Mellon, BB&T, Blackstone Group, E*TRADE, GATX, KeyCorp, Novartis AG, Nucor, Pentair, Philip Morris, Quest Diagnostics, Snap-On, Sonoco Products, and W.W. Grainger report earnings on Thursday, when new initial jobless claims numbers are also released. GE, Honeywell International, Procter & Gamble, Regions Financial, Schlumberger, State Street, SunTrust Banks, and Waste Management announce earnings Friday.
|% CHANGE||Y-T-D||1-YR CHG||5-YR AVG||10-YR AVG|
|REAL YIELD||4/13 RATE||1 YR AGO||5 YRS AGO||10 YRS AGO|
|10 YR TIPS||0.69%||0.32%||-0.68%||1.23%|
Sources: wsj.com, bigcharts.com, treasury.gov – 4/13/185,6,7,8
Indices are unmanaged, do not incur fees or expenses, and cannot be invested into directly. These returns do not include dividends. 10-year TIPS real yield = projected return at maturity given expected inflation.
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This material was prepared by MarketingPro, Inc., and does not necessarily represent the views of the presenting party, nor their affiliates. The information herein has been derived from sources believed to be accurate. Please note – investing involves risk, and past performance is no guarantee of future results. Investments will fluctuate and when redeemed may be worth more or less than when originally invested. This information should not be construed as investment, tax or legal advice and may not be relied on for the purpose of avoiding any Federal tax penalty. This is neither a solicitation nor recommendation to purchase or sell any investment or insurance product or service, and should not be relied upon as such. All market indices discussed are unmanaged and are not illustrative of any particular investment. Indices do not incur management fees, costs and expenses, and cannot be invested into directly. All economic and performance data is historical and not indicative of future results. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is a price-weighted index of 30 actively traded blue-chip stocks. The NASDAQ Composite Index is a market-weighted index of all over-the-counter common stocks traded on the National Association of Securities Dealers Automated Quotation System. The Standard & Poor’s 500 (S&P 500) is a market-cap weighted index composed of the common stocks of 500 leading companies in leading industries of the U.S. economy. NYSE Group, Inc. (NYSE:NYX) operates two securities exchanges: the New York Stock Exchange (the “NYSE”) and NYSE Arca (formerly known as the Archipelago Exchange, or ArcaEx®, and the Pacific Exchange). NYSE Group is a leading provider of securities listing, trading and market data products and services. The New York Mercantile Exchange, Inc. (NYMEX) is the world’s largest physical commodity futures exchange and the preeminent trading forum for energy and precious metals, with trading conducted through two divisions – the NYMEX Division, home to the energy, platinum, and palladium markets, and the COMEX Division, on which all other metals trade. Additional risks are associated with international investing, such as currency fluctuations, political and economic instability and differences in accounting standards. This material represents an assessment of the market environment at a specific point in time and is not intended to be a forecast of future events, or a guarantee of future results. MarketingPro, Inc. is not affiliated with any person or firm that may be providing this information to you. The publisher is not engaged in rendering legal, accounting or other professional services. If assistance is needed, the reader is advised to engage the services of a competent professional.
1 – sca.isr.umich.edu/ [4/13/18]
2 – briefing.com/investor/calendars/economic/2018/04/09-13 [4/13/18]
3 – foxbusiness.com/markets/us-consumer-prices-post-first-drop-in-10-months-on-weak-gasoline [4/11/18]
4 – marketwatch.com/story/oil-prices-post-first-weekly-gain-in-three-weeks-2018-04-13 [4/13/18]
5 – markets.wsj.com/us [4/13/18]
6 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=4%2F13%2F17&x=0&y=0 [4/13/18]
6 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=4%2F13%2F17&x=0&y=0 [4/13/18]
6 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=4%2F13%2F17&x=0&y=0 [4/13/18]
6 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=4%2F12%2F13&x=0&y=0 [4/13/18]
6 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=4%2F12%2F13&x=0&y=0 [4/13/18]
6 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=4%2F12%2F13&x=0&y=0 [4/13/18]
6 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=4%2F14%2F08&x=0&y=0 [4/13/18]
6 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=4%2F14%2F08&x=0&y=0 [4/13/18]
6 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=4%2F14%2F08&x=0&y=0 [4/13/18]
7 – treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=realyield [4/13/18]
8 – treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=realyieldAll [4/13/18]