Weekly Economic Update
Last Week and the Economy
- U.S. gas prices hit $4 per gallon amid the Iran conflict.
- The U.S. added jobs, and the unemployment rate declined marginally.
- Average wages rose, and hours declined.
The major stock indices reversed course and rose last week. The Nasdaq Composite posted the largest weekly gain at 4.44% and the S&P 500 was not far behind with a gain of 3.36%. The Russell 2k Small Cap Index and Dow Jones Industrial Average also improved by 3.28% and 2.96%, respectively. The upward trend continued in international markets where the MSCI-EAFE Index rose by 2.82%.
U.S. Gas Prices Hit $4 Per Gallon Amid Iran Conflict
The nationwide average cost of a gallon of gasoline rose to $4.018, the highest cost since 2022. The surge above $4 per gallon marks a psychological milestone and brings the increase since the conflict in Iran began to more than 30%.
Amid rapidly rising gas prices, the Environmental Protection Agency [EPA] has lifted restrictions preventing the sale of E15 gas. This type of fuel has 15% ethanol, and it is typically prohibited in about half the U.S. during the summer months to reduce air pollution.
Additionally, the EPA issued a waiver to remove federal restrictions on E10 gas – which contains 10% ethanol. The agency is also lifting federal enforcement of some state-level fuel requirements in an effort to combat rising gas prices.
The Unemployment Rate Declined Marginally
The Bureau of Labor Statistics [BLS] released the Employment Situation Report for March, and it showed that the U.S. added 178,000 jobs. The monthly increase brought the unemployment rate from 4.4% in February to 4.3% in March.
The Health Care industry added the most jobs at 76,000, which included 35,000 jobs in physicians’ offices as workers returned from a strike. The Construction, Transportation & Warehousing, and Social Assistance sectors also added jobs for the month.
On the other hand, employment continued to decline in the Government sector. Employment in this industry is down by 355,000, or 11.8%, since it reached a peak in October 2024. Financial Activities also lost jobs last month, and the sector is down 77,000 jobs since a peak in May 2025.
Wages Rose While Hours Declined
The BLS also reported that average hourly earnings for private sector employees rose by $0.09, or 0.2%, to $37.38 in March. The latest increase brought the year-over-year rise in wages to 3.5%.
While wages rose, the average workweek declined by 0.1 hour to 34.2 hours. In the manufacturing sector, the average workweek was unchanged at 40.2 hours, and overtime remained at 3.0 hours per week.
Q1 Equities Review
The major news stories of the first quarter began when the U.S. and Israel launched an attack on Iran. Gas prices rose substantially as the Strait of Hormuz was closed during the conflict, and stocks fell. The Russell 2k Small Cap Index entered a correction on March 20th, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average and Nasdaq Composite entered corrections the following week. Thus far, the S&P 500 has narrowly avoided the -10% threshold that would signify a correction.
Stocks rose in the first half of the quarter, then erased most of those gains following the onset of the Iran conflict. The Russell 2k Small Cap Index was the sole major index to post a quarterly gain, and it improved by 0.58%. The S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by 4.63% and 3.58%, respectively. The Nasdaq Composite fared even worse and dropped by 7.11%. In international markets, the MSCI-EAFE Index also lost 1.87% for the quarter.
Data Sources for stock and index quotes: Yahoo Finance, WSJ
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Key Economic Data Points
| Data Point | Date | Current | Change from Prior Period | Next Report |
| Unemployment Rate | 03-2026 | 4.3% | -0.1 | May 8th |
| FOMC Target Rate | 3-2026 | 3.50% – 3.75% | 0 | April 29th |
| GDP | Q4 2025 | 0.7% | -3.7 | April 9th |
| PCE Inflation | 1-2026 | 2.8% | -0.1 | April 9th |
Data Sources: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, FRED – St. Louis Fed, U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis
Weekly Quote:
There is nothing noble in being superior to your fellow man; true nobility is being superior to your former self.
-Ernest Hemingway, Author
The Week Ahead – Economic Data & Events
Monday: Global Supply Chain Pressure Index (GSCPI)
Tuesday: Survey of Consumer Expectations
Thursday: Gross Domestic Product, Personal Income and the PCE Deflator, Wholesale Trade
Friday: Consumer Price Index, Michigan Consumer Survey (Preliminary), Multivariate Core Trend Inflation
Weekly Reports: Mortgage Applications (Wednesday), EIA Petroleum Status Report (Wednesday), Jobless Claims (Thursday), EIA Natural Gas (Thursday), Fed Balance Sheet (Thursday), Baker Hughes Rig Count (Friday)
Source: New York Fed
The Week Ahead – S&P 500 Companies Reporting Earnings
Tuesday: Lamb Weston Holdings (LW)
Wednesday: Delta Air Lines (DAL), RPM International (RPM)
Thursday: Constellation Brands (STZ), Conagra Brands (CAG)
Friday: BlackRock (BLK), JPMorgan Chase (JPM), Wells Fargo (WFC), Citigroup (C)
Source: Select Sector SPDRs Earnings Calendar
Weekly Tip:
Get your company match. If your employer offers 401(k) matching, contribute enough to take advantage of this “free” money.
Data Sources for stock and index quotes: Yahoo Finance, WSJ
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Last Week's Riddle and Answer
Last Week's Riddle:
What 5-letter word typed in all capital letters can be read the same upside down?
Last Week's Answer:
SWIMS can be read upside down and right side up.
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