Weekly Economic Update
Last Week and the Economy
- Government shutdown ended.
- The CMS announced Medicare costs for 2026.
- Some common foods were exempted from tariffs.
The major stock indices reported mixed results last week. The S&P 500 rose markedly at the start of the week, then reversed course before ending the week just 0.08% higher. The Dow Jones Industrial Average also rose by 0.34% and the MSCI-EAFE index improved by an impressive 1.60%. On the other hand, the Russell 2k Small Cap Index fell by 1.83% and the Nasdaq Composite declined by 0.45%.
Government Shutdown Ended
President Trump signed a funding bill on Wednesday, ending the longest government shutdown in history. The bill passed the House with a vote of 222 – 209 and will keep the government funded through the end of January.
The shutdown began on October 1st, and it was largely due to Democrats seeking a guarantee that Affordable Care Act subsidies would continue rather than expiring at the end of the year. Eight Senate Democrats voted across party lines to pass a bill without that guarantee, and the measure passed in the House later in the week.
The deal allowed Democrats a vote in December to determine if healthcare subsidies will continue. It also reversed all shutdown-related layoffs of federal government workers and guaranteed payment for those who had been furloughed.
Medicare Costs for 2026 Announced
The Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services [CMS] announced 2026 premiums, deductibles, and coinsurance amounts on Friday. These costs will take effect in January and apply throughout the year.
The Medicare Part A inpatient hospital deductible will rise by $60 to $1,736 and it covers the beneficiary’s costs for the first 60 days of a hospital stay. Days 61 – 90 of a hospitalization are also subject to daily coinsurance of $434 – an increase of $15 from 2025. Coinsurance for lifetime reserve days will similarly increase by $30 to $868 per day.
The Medicare Part B monthly premium will rise by $17.90 to $202.90. All Part B recipients pay this cost each month, and they may owe a higher amount due to the Income-Related Monthly Adjustment Amount [IRMAA]. In addition to the premium, Part B recipients owe an annual deductible of $283 – an increase of $26 from the 2025 deductible.
Common Foods Exempted from Tariffs
President Trump signed an executive order on Friday to exclude some common agricultural products and foods from reciprocal tariffs. Some of the foods exempted include coffee, tea, tropical fruit, cocoa, spices, bananas, oranges, tomatoes, and beef.
The latest tariff change was retroactive, taking effect on Thursday at 12:01 am. Leslie G. Sarasin, president and CEO of FMI, told the Wall Street Journal that the action “should help consumers, whose morning cup of coffee will hopefully become more affordable, as well as U.S. manufacturers, which utilize many of these products in their supply chains and production lines.”
Data Sources for stock and index quotes: Yahoo Finance, WSJ
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Key Economic Data Points
| Data Point | Date | Current | Change from Prior | Next Report |
| Unemployment Rate | 8-2025 | 4.3% | 0.1 | November 20th |
| FOMC Target Rate | 10-2025 | 3.75% – 4.00% | -0.25 | December 10th |
| GDP | Q2 (revised) | 3.8% | 4.4 | Unknown |
| PCE Inflation | 8-2025 | 2.7% | 0.1 | Unknown |
Data Sources: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, FRED – St. Louis Fed, U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis
Weekly Quote:
The way to stop financial joyriding is to arrest the chauffeur, not the automobile.
-Woodrow Wilson, 28th U.S. President
The Week Ahead – Economic Data & Events
Monday: Empire State Manufacturing Survey, Survey of Professional Forecasters, SCE Credit Access Survey
Tuesday: Business Leaders Survey, Imports and Exports, Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization
Wednesday: New Residential Construction
Thursday: Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey, NAR Existing Home Sales, Reserve Demand Elasticity
Friday: Michigan Consumer Survey (Final)
Weekly Reports: Mortgage Applications (Wednesday), EIA Petroleum Status Report (Wednesday), Jobless Claims (Thursday), EIA Natural Gas (Thursday), Fed Balance Sheet (Thursday), Baker Hughes Rig Count (Friday)
Source: New York Fed
The Week Ahead – S&P 500 Companies Reporting Earnings
Tuesday: Medtronic Plc (MDT), Home Depot, Inc. (HD)
Wednesday: Williams-Sonoma, Inc. (WSM), Deere & Company (DE), Target Corporation (TGT), Lowe’s Companies, Inc. (LOW), TJX Companies Inc (TJX)
Thursday: Jacobs Solutions Inc. (J), Palo Alto Networks, Inc. (PANW), Intuit Inc. (INTU), Walmart Inc. (WMT), NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA)
Friday: Copart, Inc. (CPRT), Ross Stores, Inc. (ROST)
Friday: Applied Materials, Inc. (AMAT)
Source: Select Sector SPDRs Earnings Calendar
Weekly Tip:
Check for employee discounts. Many companies offer benefits outside of 401(k) match and health insurance, so take advantage of them!
Data Sources for stock and index quotes: Yahoo Finance, WSJ
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Last Week's Riddle and Answer
Last Week's Riddle:
I fly without wings. I cry without eyes. Wherever I go, darkness follows. What am I?
Last Week's Answer:
A cloud flies but doesn’t have wings, it appears to cry when it rains but doesn’t have eyes, and it casts a shadow – darkness – wherever it goes.
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