Weekly Economic Update
Last Week and the Economy
- The University of Michigan reported lower consumer sentiment and higher inflation expectations.
- The Strait of Hormuz remained closed, and gas prices rose.
- Satisfaction with jobs declined, as did the likelihood of changing jobs.
- A shooting occurred at the White House Correspondents’ Dinner.
Most of the major U.S. stock indices continued to climb last week. The Nasdaq Composite posted the largest weekly gain at 1.50%, and the S&P 500 rose by 0.55%. The Russell 2k Small Cap Index also ended the week 0.36% higher. On the other hand, the Dow Jones Industrial Average declined by 0.44%, and the MSCI-EAFE Index – which tracks international stocks – fell by 2.88%.
Consumers Reported Lower Sentiment and Higher Inflation Expectations
The University of Michigan released the final reading of the Surveys of Consumers Report for April, which solidified the declines reported earlier in the month. The report showed a 6.6% monthly drop in overall sentiment, a 5.9% decrease in assessments of current economic conditions, and a 7.0% drop in expectations for the future of the economy.
The Surveys of Consumers Director, Joanne Hsu, noted that sentiment is “comparable to the trough seen in June 2022.” She reported that declines were seen across demographics and appeared to be related to the Iran conflict. In her words, “The Iran conflict appears to influence consumer views primarily through shocks to gasoline and potentially other prices. In contrast, military and diplomatic developments that do not lift supply constraints or lower energy prices are unlikely to buoy consumers.”
The survey also tracks consumer expectations for inflation, and year-ahead inflation expectations jumped from 3.8% in March to 4.7% in April. The increase was less drastic for long-run inflation measures, but those expectations still rose to 3.5% from their previous average of 3.2% to 3.3%.
Strait of Hormuz Remains Closed, Negotiations in Limbo
The Strait of Hormuz remained closed throughout the week, and the U.S. has reportedly directed 38 ships to turn around or return to port as a part of the blockade. The closure has prevented Iran from exporting much of its oil, and President Trump said that Iran has about 3 days before its pipelines “risk explosion” due to limited storage. The Wall Street Journal reported that Iran has loaded 4.6 million barrels of oil, which could help delay a crisis from a shortage of storage space.
As the lingering conflict continues without a clear resolution, oil prices have continued to climb. Brent crude, the global benchmark, rose 12%, and West Texas Intermediate, the U.S. oil market benchmark, rose 13.72% for the week. Average gas prices rose marginally from $4.048 per gallon to $4.099, representing a 1.26% weekly increase.
On Sunday, President Trump decided not to send U.S. negotiators to Pakistan for more peace talks with Iran, suggesting “they can come to us or they can call us.” Late Sunday evening, reports suggested that Iran had reached out to the U.S. with a deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and delay negotiations over nuclear weapons. The U.S. response to this offer has not been reported as of this writing.
American Job Satisfaction Declined
The New York Fed released new readings for the SCE Labor Market Survey, a module of the Survey of Consumer Expectations [SCE] which is fielded every four months. The data was collected in March, and it showed lower satisfaction with current employment while also showing a lower percentage of the population searching for new jobs.
Satisfaction with wages fell by 3.3 points, and satisfaction with promotion opportunities fell by 3.1 points. Both readings were the lowest since the series began in March 2014.
However, the expected likelihood of moving to a new job declined by 1.4 points to 9.7%. Additionally, the average reservation wage, which denotes the lowest salary a person would accept to move to a new job, rose to an all-time high of nearly $85,000.
Shooting at the White House Correspondents’ Dinner
There was a shooting at the White House Correspondents’ Dinner on Saturday. A gunman exchanged fire with law enforcement in the lobby of the hotel where the dinner was being held before being captured. Fortunately, no attendees were harmed, and the Secret Service officer who was struck was wearing a bulletproof vest.
The suspect is Cole Tomas Allen, a teacher and game developer from California. He is currently in custody and is set to be arraigned today in Washington D.C.
Data Sources for stock and index quotes: Yahoo Finance, WSJ
Trending Articles
How to Calculate Provisional Income (a.k.a. Combined Income)
August 14, 2025School of Social Security & Medicare
Your provisional income determines if Social Security benefits are taxable, so it is important to know how to calculate this figure.
5 Characteristics of a Quality Wealth Manager
June 15, 2023School of Financial Wellness
Looking for a quality wealth manager? We pulled together our list of the 5 most important qualities to consider during your search.
What are Required Minimum Distributions (RMD’s)?
July 21, 2023School of Saving and Investing
Required Minimum Distributions are minimum withdrawals that must be taken from retirement accounts once you reach a certain age.
Key Economic Data Points
| Data Point | Date | Current | Change from Prior Period | Next Report |
| Unemployment Rate | 3-2026 | 4.3% | -0.1 | May 8th |
| FOMC Target Rate | 3-2026 | 3.50% – 3.75% | 0 | April 29th |
| GDP | Q4 2025 | 0.5% | -3.9 | April 30th |
| PCE Inflation | 2-2026 | 2.8% | 0 | April 30th |
Data Sources: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, FRED – St. Louis Fed, U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis
Weekly Quote:
Investing should be more like watching paint dry or watching grass grow. If you want excitement, take $800 and go to Las Vegas.
-Paul Samuelson, Economist
The Week Ahead – Economic Data & Events
Monday: Dallas Fed Manufacturing Survey
Tuesday: Consumer Confidence, Richmond Fed Survey of Manufacturing Activity, Dallas Fed Texas Retail Outlook Survey, FOMC Meeting Begins
Wednesday: Corporate Bond Market Distress Index (CMDI), FOMC Meeting Concludes
Thursday: Employment Cost Index, Gross Domestic Product 1st Release, Personal Income and the PCE Deflator
Friday: Construction, ISM Manufacturing, Multivariate Core Trend Inflation
Weekly Reports: Mortgage Applications (Wednesday), EIA Petroleum Status Report (Wednesday), Jobless Claims (Thursday), EIA Natural Gas (Thursday), Fed Balance Sheet (Thursday), Baker Hughes Rig Count (Friday)
Source: New York Fed
The Week Ahead – S&P 500 Companies Reporting Earnings
Monday: Verizon Communications Inc. (VZ), Domino’s Pizza Inc. (DPZ), Public Storage (PSA), Nucor Corp. (NUE), Cadence Design Systems Inc. (CDNS), Cincinnati Financial Corp. (CINF), Ventas Inc. (VTR)
Tuesday: Visa Inc. (V), Coca-Cola Co. (KO), United Parcel Service (UPS), American Tower Co. (AMT), Booking Holdings Inc. (BKNG), Starbucks Corp. (SBUX), S&P Global Inc. (SPGI), Sherwin-Williams Co. (SHW), Waste Management Inc. (WM), Welltower Inc. (WELL), Corning Inc. (GLW), Seagate Technology Holdings (STX), Mondelez International Inc. (MDLZ)
Wednesday: Microsoft Corp. (MSFT), Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL), Amazon.com Inc. (AMZN), Meta Platforms Inc. (META), AbbVie Inc. (ABBV), Qualcomm Inc. (QCOM), Automatic Data Processing (ADP), Amgen Inc. (AMGN), Amphenol Corp. (APH), General Dynamics Corp. (GD), Regeneron Pharmaceuticals Inc. (REGN), KLAC Corp. (KLAC)
Thursday: Apple Inc. (AAPL), Eli Lilly & Co. (LLY), Mastercard Inc. (MA), Merck & Co. (MRK), Caterpillar Inc. (CAT), ConocoPhillips (COP), Bristol-Myers Squibb Co. (BMY), Parker-Hannifin Corp. (PH), Western Digital Corp. (WDC), Altria Group Inc. (MO)
Friday: Exxon Mobil Corp. (XOM), Chevron Corp. (CVX), Linde PLC (LIN), Colgate-Palmolive Co. (CL), AON PLC (AON), Dominion Energy Inc. (D)
Source: Select Sector SPDRs Earnings Calendar
Weekly Tip:
Don’t let summer vacations ruin your budget. Start saving a little each month as soon as possible for your summer vacation to avoid a shock to your budget.
Data Sources for stock and index quotes: Yahoo Finance, WSJ
Join Us for Our Next Meld University Events:
Last Week's Riddle and Answer
Last Week's Riddle:
Pronounced as one letter, and written with three, two letters there are, and two in me. I’m double, I’m single. I’m black, blue, and gray, I’m read from both ends, and the same either way. What am I?
Last Week's Answer:
The answer is “eye.” It is pronounced as the letter “I,” but written with three total letters and two distinct letters. There are two eyes in the average person, and they can be many colors. The word eye is the same whether you read it forward or backward.
Meld Financial, Inc. is a registered investment advisor.
The information contained herein should not be construed as legal advice or a legal opinion on any factual situation. Its contents are intended for general information purposes only. Always consult with a competent professional service provider for advice on tax, accounting, and other financial matters specific to your situation.
Investing involves risks, and investment decisions should be based on your own goals, time horizon, and tolerance for risk. The return and principal value of investments will fluctuate as market conditions change. When sold, investments may be worth more or less than their original cost.
The forecasts or forward-looking statements are based on assumptions, may not materialize, and are subject to revision without notice.
The market indexes discussed are unmanaged, and generally, considered representative of their respective markets. Index performance is not indicative of the past performance of a particular investment. Indexes do not incur management fees, costs, and expenses. Individuals cannot directly invest in unmanaged indexes. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Riddles used in this publication may originate from the books: Lateral Thinking Puzzles by Paul Sloane; or from Workspace Solutions, LLC.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average is an unmanaged index that is generally considered representative of large-capitalization companies on the U.S. stock market. Nasdaq Composite is an index of the common stocks and similar securities listed on the Nasdaq stock market and is considered a broad indicator of the performance of technology and growth companies. The MSCI EAFE Index was created by Morgan Stanley Capital International (MSCI) and serves as a benchmark of the performance of major international equity markets, as represented by 21 major MSCI indexes from Europe, Australia, and Southeast Asia. The S&P 500 Composite Index is an unmanaged group of securities that are considered to be representative of the stock market in general.
U.S. Treasury Notes are guaranteed by the federal government as to the timely payment of principal and interest. However, if you sell a Treasury Note prior to maturity, it may be worth more or less than the original price paid. Fixed income investments are subject to various risks including changes in interest rates, credit quality, inflation risk, market valuations, prepayments, corporate events, tax ramifications and other factors.
International investments carry additional risks, which include differences in financial reporting standards, currency exchange rates, political risks unique to a specific country, foreign taxes and regulations, and the potential for illiquid markets. These factors may result in greater share price volatility.
Please consult your financial professional for additional information.
This content is developed from sources believed to be providing accurate information. The information in this material is not intended as tax or legal advice. Please consult legal or tax professionals for specific information regarding your individual situation. The opinions expressed and material provided are for general information, and they should not be considered a solicitation for the purchase or sale of any security.