Weekly Economic Update presented by Meld University

Weekly Riddle:

Which animal can jump higher than a building?

Tune in next week for the answer.
(Last week's riddle and answer can be found near the end of this post.)

 

Weekly Economic Update

Last Week and the Economy

The major stock indices rose steadily throughout the week. The Nasdaq Composite posted the largest weekly gain at 7.15%, which erased most of the lingering losses since the beginning of the year. However, the index remains down by 0.52% in 2025. The S&P 500 also reported an impressive 5.27% gain for the week, which brought the index back into positive territory for the year with a year-to-date gain of 1.30%.

The Russell 2k Small Cap index rose by 4.46% for the week, but it remains down by 5.24% year-to-date. The Dow Jones Industrial Average improved by 3.41% last week, and the impressive gain brought the index to a positive 0.26% return for 2025. In international markets, the MSCI-EAFE index rose by 0.78% for the week, which strengthened its year-to-date gain to 12.74%.

CPI Inflation Rate Slowed to A 4-Year Low

The Bureau of Labor Statistics released the April Consumer Price Index Report which showed considerable improvement for American buyers. Prices rose by 0.2% for the month, but the annual inflation rate slowed from 2.4% in March to 2.3% in April. The monthly decline may seem small on the surface, but it is substantial because it marked the lowest inflation rate since February 2021.

Food prices declined by 0.1% in April after rising by 0.4% in March. This decline is the largest in that sector of the index since September 2020 and was driven by a 12.7% drop in the price of eggs. Many other types of food also declined in price for the month including fruits, vegetables, and meats.

Despite the heartening decline in food prices, other areas of the index rose for the month. Most notably, Shelter costs rose by 0.3% and contributed more than half of the total monthly price increase. Energy prices also rose by 0.7% with Electricity and Utility Gas Service increases outweighing a decline in Gasoline prices.

Home Building Activity Slowed

According to the latest data from the Census Bureau, home builders requested about 1.4 million permits for new construction homes in April. This is 4.7% below the March rate and 3.2% below the rate one year ago.

Along with fewer permits, builders completed 5.9% fewer homes in April than March and 12.3% fewer than one year ago. On the other hand, they began construction on 1.6% more homes than the previous month, though the year-over-year change in housing starts fell by 1.7%. A new report this week will show how slowing new home construction impacts sales and pricing.

Retail Sales Rose Marginally

The Advance Monthly Sales for Retail and Food Services Report from the Census Bureau showed that sales increased by just 0.1% in April after rising by 1.7% in March. On an annual basis, sales rose by 5.2% without adjustments for inflation.

Sales at home and garden stores rose by a considerable 0.8% while furniture stores reported a 0.3% rise. Electronics stores, restaurants, and non-store retailers also reported higher sales for the month. On the other hand, sporting goods and hobby stores recorded significantly slower sales with a monthly decline of 2.5%. Health stores, gas stations, clothing stores, and department stores also reported slowing sales.

Data Sources for stock and index quotes: Yahoo Finance, WSJ

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Key Economic Data Points

Data PointDateCurrentChange from PriorNext Report
Unemployment Rate4-20254.2%0June 6th
FOMC Target Rate5-20254.25% – 4.50%0June 18th
GDPQ1-0.3%-2.7May 29th
PCE Inflation3-20252.3%-0.2May 30th

Data Sources: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, FRED – St. Louis Fed, U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis

Weekly Quote:

Rely on the ordinary virtues that intelligent, balanced human beings have relied on for centuries: common sense, thrift, realistic expectations, patience, and perseverance.
-Jack Bogle, Founder of the Vanguard Group

The Week Ahead – Economic Data & Events

Monday: SCE Household Spending Survey

Wednesday: Philadelphia Fed Non-Manufacturing Survey, Outlook-at-Risk

Friday: NAR Existing Home Sales, New Residential Sales

Weekly Reports: Mortgage Applications (Wednesday), EIA Petroleum Status Report (Wednesday), Jobless Claims (Thursday), EIA Natural Gas (Thursday), Fed Balance Sheet (Thursday), Baker Hughes Rig Count (Friday)

Source: New York Fed

The Week Ahead – S&P 500 Companies Reporting Earnings

Tuesday: Home Depot, Inc. (HD)

Wednesday: Keysight Technologies Inc (KEYS), Best Buy Co., Inc. (BBY), Williams-Sonoma, Inc. (WSM), Palo Alto Networks, Inc. (PANW), Medtronic Plc (MDT), Target Corporation (TGT), Lowe’s Companies, Inc. (LOW), TJX Companies Inc (TJX)

Thursday: Ralph Lauren Corporation Class A (RL), Workday, Inc. Class A (WDAY), Dollar Tree, Inc. (DLTR), Analog Devices, Inc. (ADI), Intuit Inc. (INTU)

Friday: Deckers Outdoor Corporation (DECK), Autodesk, Inc. (ADSK), Copart, Inc. (CPRT), Ross Stores, Inc. (ROST)

Source: Select Sector SPDRs Earnings Calendar

Weekly Tip:

If you have trouble overspending, make a list before you shop – and stick to it!

Weekly closing numbers for the major U.S. Stock Indices with weekly and year to date percentage changes.
S&P 500 Chart detailing the daily close for each day last week.

Data Sources for stock and index quotes: Yahoo Finance, WSJ

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Last Week's Riddle and Answer

Last Week's Riddle:
I can be long, or I can be short. I can be grown, and I can be bought. I can be painted or left bare. I can be round, or square. What am I?

Last Week's Answer:
Fingernails can be long or short, grown or bought, painted or left bare, and round or square.

Meld Financial, Inc. is a registered investment advisor.

The information contained herein should not be construed as legal advice or a legal opinion on any factual situation. Its contents are intended for general information purposes only. Always consult with a competent professional service provider for advice on tax, accounting, and other financial matters specific to your situation.

Investing involves risks, and investment decisions should be based on your own goals, time horizon, and tolerance for risk. The return and principal value of investments will fluctuate as market conditions change. When sold, investments may be worth more or less than their original cost.

The forecasts or forward-looking statements are based on assumptions, may not materialize, and are subject to revision without notice.

The market indexes discussed are unmanaged, and generally, considered representative of their respective markets. Index performance is not indicative of the past performance of a particular investment. Indexes do not incur management fees, costs, and expenses. Individuals cannot directly invest in unmanaged indexes. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Riddles used in this publication may originate from the books: Lateral Thinking Puzzles by Paul Sloane; or from Workspace Solutions, LLC.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average is an unmanaged index that is generally considered representative of large-capitalization companies on the U.S. stock market. Nasdaq Composite is an index of the common stocks and similar securities listed on the Nasdaq stock market and is considered a broad indicator of the performance of technology and growth companies. The MSCI EAFE Index was created by Morgan Stanley Capital International (MSCI) and serves as a benchmark of the performance of major international equity markets, as represented by 21 major MSCI indexes from Europe, Australia, and Southeast Asia. The S&P 500 Composite Index is an unmanaged group of securities that are considered to be representative of the stock market in general.

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