Weekly Economic Update
Last Week and the Economy
- The CPI inflation rate slowed to a 4-year low.
- Home building activity slowed.
- Retail sales rose marginally.
The major stock indices rose steadily throughout the week. The Nasdaq Composite posted the largest weekly gain at 7.15%, which erased most of the lingering losses since the beginning of the year. However, the index remains down by 0.52% in 2025. The S&P 500 also reported an impressive 5.27% gain for the week, which brought the index back into positive territory for the year with a year-to-date gain of 1.30%.
The Russell 2k Small Cap index rose by 4.46% for the week, but it remains down by 5.24% year-to-date. The Dow Jones Industrial Average improved by 3.41% last week, and the impressive gain brought the index to a positive 0.26% return for 2025. In international markets, the MSCI-EAFE index rose by 0.78% for the week, which strengthened its year-to-date gain to 12.74%.
CPI Inflation Rate Slowed to A 4-Year Low
The Bureau of Labor Statistics released the April Consumer Price Index Report which showed considerable improvement for American buyers. Prices rose by 0.2% for the month, but the annual inflation rate slowed from 2.4% in March to 2.3% in April. The monthly decline may seem small on the surface, but it is substantial because it marked the lowest inflation rate since February 2021.
Food prices declined by 0.1% in April after rising by 0.4% in March. This decline is the largest in that sector of the index since September 2020 and was driven by a 12.7% drop in the price of eggs. Many other types of food also declined in price for the month including fruits, vegetables, and meats.
Despite the heartening decline in food prices, other areas of the index rose for the month. Most notably, Shelter costs rose by 0.3% and contributed more than half of the total monthly price increase. Energy prices also rose by 0.7% with Electricity and Utility Gas Service increases outweighing a decline in Gasoline prices.
Home Building Activity Slowed
According to the latest data from the Census Bureau, home builders requested about 1.4 million permits for new construction homes in April. This is 4.7% below the March rate and 3.2% below the rate one year ago.
Along with fewer permits, builders completed 5.9% fewer homes in April than March and 12.3% fewer than one year ago. On the other hand, they began construction on 1.6% more homes than the previous month, though the year-over-year change in housing starts fell by 1.7%. A new report this week will show how slowing new home construction impacts sales and pricing.
Retail Sales Rose Marginally
The Advance Monthly Sales for Retail and Food Services Report from the Census Bureau showed that sales increased by just 0.1% in April after rising by 1.7% in March. On an annual basis, sales rose by 5.2% without adjustments for inflation.
Sales at home and garden stores rose by a considerable 0.8% while furniture stores reported a 0.3% rise. Electronics stores, restaurants, and non-store retailers also reported higher sales for the month. On the other hand, sporting goods and hobby stores recorded significantly slower sales with a monthly decline of 2.5%. Health stores, gas stations, clothing stores, and department stores also reported slowing sales.
Data Sources for stock and index quotes: Yahoo Finance, WSJ
Trending Articles
5 Characteristics of a Quality Wealth Manager
June 15, 2023School of Financial Wellness
Looking for a quality wealth manager? We pulled together our list of the 5 most important qualities to consider during your search.
What are Required Minimum Distributions (RMD’s)?
July 21, 2023School of Saving and Investing
Required Minimum Distributions are minimum withdrawals that must be taken from retirement accounts once you reach a certain age.
How to Calculate Provisional Income (a.k.a. Combined Income)
August 8, 2024School of Social Security & Medicare
Your provisional income determines if Social Security benefits are taxable, so it is important to know how to calculate this figure.
Key Economic Data Points
| Data Point | Date | Current | Change from Prior | Next Report |
| Unemployment Rate | 4-2025 | 4.2% | 0 | June 6th |
| FOMC Target Rate | 5-2025 | 4.25% – 4.50% | 0 | June 18th |
| GDP | Q1 | -0.3% | -2.7 | May 29th |
| PCE Inflation | 3-2025 | 2.3% | -0.2 | May 30th |
Data Sources: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, FRED – St. Louis Fed, U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis
Weekly Quote:
Rely on the ordinary virtues that intelligent, balanced human beings have relied on for centuries: common sense, thrift, realistic expectations, patience, and perseverance.
-Jack Bogle, Founder of the Vanguard Group
The Week Ahead – Economic Data & Events
Monday: SCE Household Spending Survey
Wednesday: Philadelphia Fed Non-Manufacturing Survey, Outlook-at-Risk
Friday: NAR Existing Home Sales, New Residential Sales
Weekly Reports: Mortgage Applications (Wednesday), EIA Petroleum Status Report (Wednesday), Jobless Claims (Thursday), EIA Natural Gas (Thursday), Fed Balance Sheet (Thursday), Baker Hughes Rig Count (Friday)
Source: New York Fed
The Week Ahead – S&P 500 Companies Reporting Earnings
Tuesday: Home Depot, Inc. (HD)
Wednesday: Keysight Technologies Inc (KEYS), Best Buy Co., Inc. (BBY), Williams-Sonoma, Inc. (WSM), Palo Alto Networks, Inc. (PANW), Medtronic Plc (MDT), Target Corporation (TGT), Lowe’s Companies, Inc. (LOW), TJX Companies Inc (TJX)
Thursday: Ralph Lauren Corporation Class A (RL), Workday, Inc. Class A (WDAY), Dollar Tree, Inc. (DLTR), Analog Devices, Inc. (ADI), Intuit Inc. (INTU)
Friday: Deckers Outdoor Corporation (DECK), Autodesk, Inc. (ADSK), Copart, Inc. (CPRT), Ross Stores, Inc. (ROST)
Source: Select Sector SPDRs Earnings Calendar
Weekly Tip:
If you have trouble overspending, make a list before you shop – and stick to it!
Data Sources for stock and index quotes: Yahoo Finance, WSJ
Join Us for Our Next Meld University Events:
Last Week's Riddle and Answer
Last Week's Riddle:
I can be long, or I can be short. I can be grown, and I can be bought. I can be painted or left bare. I can be round, or square. What am I?
Last Week's Answer:
Fingernails can be long or short, grown or bought, painted or left bare, and round or square.
Meld Financial, Inc. is a registered investment advisor.
The information contained herein should not be construed as legal advice or a legal opinion on any factual situation. Its contents are intended for general information purposes only. Always consult with a competent professional service provider for advice on tax, accounting, and other financial matters specific to your situation.
Investing involves risks, and investment decisions should be based on your own goals, time horizon, and tolerance for risk. The return and principal value of investments will fluctuate as market conditions change. When sold, investments may be worth more or less than their original cost.
The forecasts or forward-looking statements are based on assumptions, may not materialize, and are subject to revision without notice.
The market indexes discussed are unmanaged, and generally, considered representative of their respective markets. Index performance is not indicative of the past performance of a particular investment. Indexes do not incur management fees, costs, and expenses. Individuals cannot directly invest in unmanaged indexes. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Riddles used in this publication may originate from the books: Lateral Thinking Puzzles by Paul Sloane; or from Workspace Solutions, LLC.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average is an unmanaged index that is generally considered representative of large-capitalization companies on the U.S. stock market. Nasdaq Composite is an index of the common stocks and similar securities listed on the Nasdaq stock market and is considered a broad indicator of the performance of technology and growth companies. The MSCI EAFE Index was created by Morgan Stanley Capital International (MSCI) and serves as a benchmark of the performance of major international equity markets, as represented by 21 major MSCI indexes from Europe, Australia, and Southeast Asia. The S&P 500 Composite Index is an unmanaged group of securities that are considered to be representative of the stock market in general.
U.S. Treasury Notes are guaranteed by the federal government as to the timely payment of principal and interest. However, if you sell a Treasury Note prior to maturity, it may be worth more or less than the original price paid. Fixed income investments are subject to various risks including changes in interest rates, credit quality, inflation risk, market valuations, prepayments, corporate events, tax ramifications and other factors.
International investments carry additional risks, which include differences in financial reporting standards, currency exchange rates, political risks unique to a specific country, foreign taxes and regulations, and the potential for illiquid markets. These factors may result in greater share price volatility.
Please consult your financial professional for additional information.
This content is developed from sources believed to be providing accurate information. The information in this material is not intended as tax or legal advice. Please consult legal or tax professionals for specific information regarding your individual situation. The opinions expressed and material provided are for general information, and they should not be considered a solicitation for the purchase or sale of any security.