Weekly Economic Update
Last Week and the Economy
- Confusion was the name of the game in the Iran conflict last week, particularly regarding the Strait of Hormuz.
- The National Association of Realtors announced that sales of existing homes fell in March.
The major stock indices rose steadily throughout the week and continued to erase losses from earlier in the year. The Nasdaq Composite posted the largest weekly gain at 6.84%, and it is now up by 5.28% for the year to date. The Russell 2k Small Cap Index also rose by 5.56% for the week, bringing its year-to-date gain to 11.89%. The S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average posted weekly gains of 4.54% and 3.19%, and both indices are in positive territory for the year thus far. The upward trend continued in international markets where the MSCI-EAFE Index rose by 2.15% for the week, bringing its year-to-date improvement to 7.56%.
Confusion Reigned in the Strait of Hormuz
On Friday, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi posted on social media that the Strait of Hormuz was “completely open.” This followed the announcement of a 10-day ceasefire between Lebanon and Isreal, which took effect on Thursday and was brokered by the U.S.
Friday night, people identifying as a part of the Revolutionary Guard’s navy communicated via marine radio that the strait was not open, and ships still needed permission to pass. Then, on Saturday, Iran’s military confirmed that the strait had been closed.
The United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations Centre – part of the U.K.’s military – reported that Iran’s Revolutionary Guard attacked a tanker in the strait on Saturday. Reuters also reported two other vessels coming under fire. Then, on Sunday, the U.S. Navy fired on an Iranian ship in the Gulf of Oman, and the Marines took custody of the ship as a part of the U.S. blockade.
Maritime conflict and the back-and-forth headlines about control of the strait have justifiably left many Americans confused about the broader Iranian conflict and the temporary ceasefire in place. President Trump said U.S. negotiators will head back to Pakistan today for another round of talks, but it remains unclear as of this writing whether Iran will also be present.
Existing Home Sales Fell While Prices Rose
The National Association of Realtors [NAR] released the Existing-Home Sales Report for March, which showed a 3.6% monthly decline and a 1.0% annual decline in the number of homes sold. NAR Chief Economist Dr. Lawrence Yun explained that “lower consumer confidence and softer job growth continue to hold back buyers.”
Yun also said, “Inventory remains a major constraint on the market… An additional 300,000 to 500,000 homes for sale would help bring the market closer to normal conditions.” Fortunately for buyers, the inventory of available homes increased by 3.0% from February and 2.3% from March 2025, bringing the supply to 4.1 months at the current sales pace.
According to Yun, constrained inventory contributed to a continued increase in price. The median sales price of an existing home was $408,800, marking the 33rd consecutive month of year-over-year price increases and the highest recorded price for the month of March.
Data Sources for stock and index quotes: Yahoo Finance, WSJ
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Key Economic Data Points
| Data Point | Date | Current | Change from Prior Period | Next Report |
| Unemployment Rate | 3-2026 | 4.3% | -0.1 | May 8th |
| FOMC Target Rate | 3-2026 | 3.50% – 3.75% | 0 | April 29th |
| GDP | Q4 2025 | 0.5% | -3.9 | April 30th |
| PCE Inflation | 2-2026 | 2.8% | 0 | April 30th |
Data Sources: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, FRED – St. Louis Fed, U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis
Weekly Quote:
The stock market is the story of cycles and of the human behavior that is responsible for overreactions in both directions.
-Seth Klarman, CEO of Baupost Group
The Week Ahead – Economic Data & Events
Monday: SCE Labor Market Survey
Tuesday: Philadelphia Fed Non-Manufacturing Survey, NAR Pending Home Sales Index
Thursday: New Residential Sales
Friday: Advance Durable Goods, Michigan Consumer Survey (Final)
Weekly Reports: Mortgage Applications (Wednesday), EIA Petroleum Status Report (Wednesday), Jobless Claims (Thursday), EIA Natural Gas (Thursday), Fed Balance Sheet (Thursday), Baker Hughes Rig Count (Friday)
Source: New York Fed
The Week Ahead – S&P 500 Companies Reporting Earnings
Monday: Nucor (NUE), Steel Dynamics (STLD), J.B. Hunt Transport Services (JBHT), Brown & Brown (BRO)
Tuesday: 3M Company (MMM), GE Aerospace (GE), UnitedHealth Group (UNH), Lockheed Martin (LMT), Verizon Communications (VZ), Philip Morris International (PM), Texas Instruments (TXN), Intuitive Surgical (ISRG), Danaher (DHR), Lowe’s (LOW), Halliburton (HAL)
Wednesday: Tesla (TSLA), AT&T (T), Boeing (BA), International Business Machines (IBM), NextEra Energy (NEE), ServiceNow (NOW), Lam Research (LRCX), Blackstone (BX), General Dynamics (GD), Norfolk Southern (NSC), Teradyne (TER)
Thursday: American Express (AXP), Thermo Fisher Scientific (TMO), Honeywell International (HON), Union Pacific (UNP), Intel (INTC), S&P Global (SPGI), Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG), Capital One Financial (COF), Marsh & McLennan (MMC), Gilead Sciences (GILD), Western Digital (WDC)
Friday: Procter & Gamble (PG), Colgate-Palmolive (CL), Aon (AON), SLB (SLB), HCA Healthcare (HCA), Roper Technologies (ROP), Centene (CNC)
Source: Select Sector SPDRs Earnings Calendar
Weekly Tip:
Check your credit score often. A monthly check of your credit score can help you spot fraud and missed payments while keeping you ready to apply for loans when you need them.
Data Sources for stock and index quotes: Yahoo Finance, WSJ
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Last Week's Riddle and Answer
Last Week's Riddle:
I have pointed fangs, and I sit and wait. I have piercing force, and I crunch with weight. I grab my victims, but they do not fight. I join them each with a single, quick bite. What am I?
Last Week's Answer:
The answer is a stapler. This office tool has pointed fangs – the edges of the staple – and sits on the desk until needed. It has enough force to pierce multiple sheets of paper, which do not fight back. Ultimately, the stapler joins the papers.
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